I enjoyed the Selten reference at the outset. In circumstances like these, I often think of Kreps and Wilson's (1982) "Reputation and Imperfect Information," where building a reputation of toughness can help the emergence of cooperative equilibria. One problem of the Trump administration is that flip-flops follow initial claims of toughness, resulting in chaos.
Thank you, indeed. Kreps and Wilson 82 is a great relevant paper. Toughness followed by climbdown is indeed an ongoing problem (e.g. tariff rates), dissembling trust and causing chaos. Uncertainty is a far worse problem for supply chains than any expected increase in costs.
Senthil, thanks for thoughtful pieces regarding actions that seem to be done in anything but a thoughtful mode! I'm sure there's some model that accounts for these wide swings in action, but it must be unsettling to have to analyse what's currently going on. A question is how much the electoral process and the executive powers currently being exercised really reflect the US 'strategy' in some fundamental way. I find it hard to assess the various segments of society in a country going only by how their governments behave (as true in India as anywhere else).
Thanks, Prof. These wide swings in action that followed a period of inaction, are a natural part of American democracy: raucous, agitated, and polarized. These movements are both organic and organized in complex ways. One enduring debate that we are seeing rise up again is between isolationism and interventionism. For instance, the US helped form League of Nations but did not join it.
Still, I agree that it is simplistic to assess various parts of society (which are also getting realigned politically) through actions of the elected government.
I enjoyed the Selten reference at the outset. In circumstances like these, I often think of Kreps and Wilson's (1982) "Reputation and Imperfect Information," where building a reputation of toughness can help the emergence of cooperative equilibria. One problem of the Trump administration is that flip-flops follow initial claims of toughness, resulting in chaos.
Thank you, indeed. Kreps and Wilson 82 is a great relevant paper. Toughness followed by climbdown is indeed an ongoing problem (e.g. tariff rates), dissembling trust and causing chaos. Uncertainty is a far worse problem for supply chains than any expected increase in costs.
Senthil, thanks for thoughtful pieces regarding actions that seem to be done in anything but a thoughtful mode! I'm sure there's some model that accounts for these wide swings in action, but it must be unsettling to have to analyse what's currently going on. A question is how much the electoral process and the executive powers currently being exercised really reflect the US 'strategy' in some fundamental way. I find it hard to assess the various segments of society in a country going only by how their governments behave (as true in India as anywhere else).
Thanks, Prof. These wide swings in action that followed a period of inaction, are a natural part of American democracy: raucous, agitated, and polarized. These movements are both organic and organized in complex ways. One enduring debate that we are seeing rise up again is between isolationism and interventionism. For instance, the US helped form League of Nations but did not join it.
Still, I agree that it is simplistic to assess various parts of society (which are also getting realigned politically) through actions of the elected government.